ad astra per alia porci


an attempt to calculate the ratio of females to males for universities in 2007
May 23, 2007, 8:20 am
Filed under: miscellaneous

At a class gathering last week one of my JC friends told me casually that the ratio of females to males for my batch of university students entering university this year is a whooping 7:3. That comment got me standing at attention (metaphorically) since it means that the girls outnumber the guys by 133.33%, which is absolutely fantastic from a guy’s (ok, to be more specific, bachelor’s) point of view. The economic laws of scarcity is working in our favour, 21-year-old manfolk of S’pore.

Fortunately MOE has this thing called the Education Statistic Digest, which I chanced upon after clicking around the Singstat website, which was my first destination when I wanted to find statistics. Here’s the link: http://www.moe.gov.sg/esd/ESD2006.pdf

There is this part which lists pre-university enrolment by level. The dragon babies are born in the year 1988, and hence they should be in JC1 in the year 2005. Hence the number of female students enrolled in JC1 should be able to give us an approximation of the number of students that will be enrolling in university in 2007.

Let’s define a few variables first:

Let S be the number of female students in JC1 in 2005

Let E be the real number of female students entering university in 2007

Let X be the approximated number of female students entering university in 2007, using our standards of extrapolation and inferencing from previous data as will be shown later.

Let Y be the estimated number of female JC2 students in 2006.

The main problem is that E < S but there is no data source for E. Hence we are finding a approximate of E, which we label conveniently and provocatively as X.

Here’s a step by step methodology to find X from S.

  1. Find S from the data source
  2. Find the average percentage change in the number of female JC1 and JC2 students from year to year for 9 years (the data stops at 1996). Hence we will average the percentage change in number of female students from JC1 in 1996 to number of female students in JC2 in 1997, 1997 to 1998, 1998 to 1999 and so on. This will reveal a rough way of estimating the number of female JC2 students in 2006 by using the average percentage change to discount S.  I will name this discount rate the Dropout Rate.
  3. Find the average percentage of students who are in JC2 out of the number of university intake for the next year, from 2000 to 2005 (the inclusion of SMU intake in 2000 reduces the amount of accurate data we can use). Let’s call it the Intake Rate.
  4. Apply the average percentage in step 3 to Y to obtain X.

I can’t find data of the number of dragon females (sounds weird) who are in JC2 in 2006, which would have made a better approximate of E since there will be JC1 students who drop out of JC or are not allowed to progress on to JC2.

From data,

S = 8350

This is going to get real messy.

Dropout Rate = (1/9) x ( (100-(5269/5456)(100)) + (100-(5813/6064)(100)) + … )

= (1/9) x (3.427419355 + 4.139182058 + 4.251674194 + 3.607332939 + 4.34298441 + 5.781946794 + 6.38206739 + 7.319065512 + 6.658929349)

= (1/9)(45.910602)

= 5.101178%

Y = 8350 x ( 100 – 5.101178)(1/100) = 7924.051637

Intake Rate = (1/6) [ (5762/6148)(100) + (5854/6520)(100) + … ]

= (1/6)( 93.7215354 + 89.785276 + 95.2270081 + 94.32022197 + 94.8909562 + 89.0441061 )

= (1/6) (556.9891038)

= 92.8315173%

Hence

X = (Intake Rate)(Y)

   = 7356.017366

Hence X is 7356.017366.

Now we need to find the estimated number of males entering university in 2007.

Let H be the number of JC2 male students in 2004 (Tiger year boys).

Let U be the Intake Rate 2 for male students (same methods again… just read above.)

Let NK be the estimated number of males entering university in 2007.

From data, H = 107210 – 5673 = 5048

U = (1/6) [ (4780/5470)(100) + (4846/5290)(100) + … ]

    = (1/6) (87.3857404 + 91.6068052 + 98.286575 + 91.89716312 + 86.78834561 + 86.13328988)

    = (1/6) (542.0979192)

    = 90.3496532%

NK =  (U)(H) = 5048 x (90.3496532/100) = 4560.850494

[Drumroll]

Hence, our estimated ratio of females to males for students matriculating to study in 2007 is:

X : NK = 7356.017366 : 4560.850494 = 1.612860885 : 1

Approximating 1.612860885 to 1.6, the ratio is:

8 : 5

Hence according to my estimates, guys make up 38.5% of the entire batch while according to my friend’s ratio, guys make up 30% of the batch. Happy days lie ahead.

A disclaimer: This is a very rough (and probably inaccurate) calculation of the sex ratio by a person who has probably too much time on his hands and too little data available. I make no claims about its level of accuracy but I would feel gratified if my calculations fall within 20% of the true ratio.

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2 Comments so far
Leave a comment

just dropping by to say hello! 🙂 don’t be too depressed about the stats, i’m sure it isn’t that bad when you actually get there!

Comment by jieqi

I’m sure the statistics doesn’t affect our elgin. Even if the stats were 7 guys to 3 girls, he’ll still get the girls cuz he sexy !!

Comment by Toh




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